The US embassy security alert and rumors from Taliban sources and allegedly French intelligence about IS attacking the crowd at the airport got me thinking.

Yes, the airport is an obvious target for IS right now. But who would profit the most? That’s right, the newly founded emirate of Afghanistan.

There are at least three benefits from a false flag attack:

1. The airport will almost certainly be abandoned rather soon by US troops if that happens. In fact, it is the only reason I can see that could trigger a nearly immediate retreat.

2. The population of Kabul will see the Taliban fighters more as a security force than occupation. Checkpoints, searches, kidnapping, even the fight against the NA could be sold as “war on terror”. (Obviously, no civilized people would fall for such cheap propaganda and give up their civil liberties freely to fight “terrorism”, but the Afghans have had 40 year civil war, mind you).

3. The outside world could be more inclined to decide to rather accept Taliban rule to avoid IS taking their role.

Now the interesting question is: Do the Taliban have the capabilities and willingness to do something like that? Would they find a suicide squad that would attack under a false name? Or is it important to suicide bombers to be publicly praised afterwards?