Trump’s Iran war leaves the US looking weakened to adversaries
(Bloomberg) — The ceasefire in Iran has reinforced views among both adversaries and the NATO alliance that President Donald Trump’s campaign against the Tehran regime marks a strategic setback, bolstering China and Russia while squandering American strengths, according to people familiar with the thinking across capitals in Europe and the Middle East.
While Moscow and Beijing fear US military and intelligence superiority, they have seen it couldn’t force Iran’s capitulation, the people said. The tensions in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which culminated in Trump threatening to leave the alliance, have left lasting doubts over his commitment to its defense.
The two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, will also dent Trump’s credibility as a negotiator and likely further deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from making concessions in Ukraine, according to the people, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about their assessments of the war conducted by their ally.
“Although Iran has suffered huge physical damage and much loss of life, it emerges strategically stronger,” former UK National Security Adviser Peter Ricketts said. “The regime has survived. It has shown the massive leverage control of Hormuz gives them.”
Officials in Europe cautioned that the terms of any lasting ceasefire had yet to be agreed, though they expressed concern that Iran may end up viewed as the strategic winner despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and more than five weeks of heavy bombardment by the US and Israel.
“It’s certainly not a victory in that the United States has nowhere achieved any of its military objectives,” Long Island University Director of International Relations Dalia Fahmy told Bloomberg TV. “Actually, the war has cost the United States much more than anticipated.”
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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains in place, and could likely become more hardline and quickly rebuild its missile program, the people said. Tehran will have concluded that its drone capabilities are sufficient to cause significant problems for Gulf states and seen confirmation that its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is capable of triggering a global energy crisis that may deter any future attack.
It remains unclear to what extent the war has diminished Iran’s nuclear program and its leaders may have been incentivized to renew their ambitions to get the bomb, according to European diplomats.
One key unknown is the influence Tehran will be able to exert over the strait longer-term, one of the officials said, noting with trepidation language in the statement announcing the ceasefire that transit will be permitted in coordination with the Iranian military. If it is able to dictate the terms of movement through the waterway or even charge tolls then Iran will in some ways have been left in a stronger position by the conflict, they said.
Iran wants a permanent control over the waterway going forward and after the war ends, according to a person with knowledge of the negotiations who asked not to be identified because of sensitivity of the information. Iran would seek to ensure passage through the strait during the truce period is safe under the coordination of the armed forces of Iran to lay the foundation for the future of setup, the person added.
US allies are also fearful of the impact the conflict will have on the views of countries in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and South America toward Washington.
In the Gulf, there is particular alarm among some countries that their initial pleas to the Trump administration not to proceed with the conflict went unheeded, according to people familiar with their thinking. And Gulf officials may see walking away with the Tehran regime in place as even worse, they said, with concern over Trump’s unpredictability prompting them to strengthen alliances elsewhere, they said.
Trump had likely viewed his operation against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as evidence he could decapitate enemy regimes and swiftly win wars, but that notion had been dispelled by the Middle East conflict, another official said.
More broadly, Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s civilization will make it harder for the US to paint itself as a benign hegemon, in contrast to Russia and China, which the West routinely accuses of war crimes and human rights abuses, they said. They warned this may push so-called “middle ground” countries toward Moscow and Beijing, suggesting it may take years of diplomacy to undo.
Russia, Iran and China would likely also further strengthen ties among them in the wake of the conflict, making it even less likely that the US would be able to achieve its goal of fracturing those relations, sometimes termed a “reverse Kissinger” after the former secretary of state, officials said.
The Iran campaign has been a “serious setback” for Trump, said Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai who previously advised the Chinese Foreign Ministry. “When he comes to Beijing now, he’ll be frustrated and will realize that China will have to play an even larger role,” said Wu, who spoke before the ceasefire was announced.
Officials cited mockery of Trump in Russian and Chinese state media as evidence of how his handling of the war will likely be perceived by the regimes in those countries. The TACO meme — that “Trump Always Chickens Out” — is not just an amusing political attack by his domestic opponents but now a geopolitical conclusion of America’s enemies, one said.
“There’s been a huge amount of damage, economic human cost that we haven’t really calculated yet,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told Bloomberg TV. “Relations in the region have been set back, I would say, by a decade if not two.”
–With assistance from Alberto Nardelli and Salma El Wardany.
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