The first absentee ballots will be sent out in North Carolina starting on Sept. 4. Voters in Pennsylvania will be able to request, fill out and turn in absentee ballots in person starting on Sept. 14, followed by voters in Michigan on Sept. 19.

That could spell trouble for Trump, who is behind the Democratic nominee in national polls as well as the most recent polls in all three states.

a close up of a map: Starting Early© Bloomberg Starting Early 

Lon Johnson, former chair of the Michigan Democratic Party, said early voting would force Trump and Biden to make their “closing arguments” much sooner than in previous years.

“In the past, campaigns had a three-week window before the election where it was crunch time,” he said. “That window has expanded significantly.”

In 2016, more than 47 million voters cast their ballots before Election Day, either in person or by mail, according to an accounting by Michael McDonald of the University of Florida.

Election administrators are encouraging voting even earlier this year to avoid problems at the polls and to ensure their votes are counted during the pandemic.

“Early voting is definitely a part of the solution to Covid,” said Don Palmer, a Trump-appointed member of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. “If you’re going to vote absentee or mail, it is always good from my perspective to start early, and make that request, because often you’ll have a process where you are dealing with the bureaucracies of the post office or the election office.”

Early voting has also compressed the election calendar. North Carolina will begin mailing ballots out just eight days after the Republican National Convention ends in late August, while voters in all three states will be able to cast a ballot before the first presidential debate on Sept. 29.

Last month, the Trump campaign lobbied the Commission on Presidential Debates to organize a fourth debate that would take place earlier than the three currently scheduled.

Samantha Zager, deputy national press secretary for the Trump campaign, said Monday that the likely surge in early voting demonstrated the need for an additional forum.

“With early voting taking on a unique role this cycle, we’ve asked for more – and earlier – debates with the Democrat candidate,” Zager said.

Carter Wrenn, a Republican consultant in North Carolina, said that early voting will reduce the effects of an “October surprise,” a last-minute revelation that dramatically changes the dynamic of the race.

“You could see a surprise earlier; you could see two,” he said. “I don’t think that will go away because there are always surprises before elections.”

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